Nowhere to run- nowhere to hide
Last week, stocks dropped and the Dow is -4.71%, year to date while the S&P is -8.98%, year to date, in what was the worst one-week performance since October 2008. The S&P is the top 500 stocks and our portfolios have dividend paying stocks and bonds paying interest to create cash flow and yield so we are not 100% correlated to the S&P. We report on it since it is a widely followed gauge of the market but our returns are not consistent with an all stock portfolio.
Volatility seems likely to stay as the movement of the market swings several hundred points intraday. We have a government showdown date in November for the deficit spending plan to try and correct what the politicians could not pull together in August. They put the S&P rating of the United States in jeopardy with a downgrade.
It has been difficult to hang on to the roller coaster. Everything is not as bad as it seems. The current Greece crisis is taking the attention away from good news from corporations with good balance sheets, improved earnings and stronger than expected manufacturing and construction spending activity in the U.S. We are focused on the end of the year and into 2012.
Greece and the European debt crisis continue to drag on but they seem to be making progress toward a decision on a structured Greece default. The European Union bailout will be costly, just as the United States bailout was, but it is the best option for the Euro. How does it affect the U.S.? 27% of U.S. exports of our goods and services in 2010 went to European buyers.
It is official Federal Reserve news that the yield on savings and CDs will continue to be near zero until mid 2013. They have pledged that rates will remain low for the next two years in the hope that the housing market will get a boost from buyers able to afford a low mortgage rate. I don’t think the housing market will show a meaningful recovery for five more years and it will again be a “lost decade” for real estate. Many are trying to hang on to homes that are underwater by waiting it out or renting out homes they could not sell. This has forced many into the role of accidental landlord.
Commodities have finally had their correction: Gold, oil, silver, and other metals fell in the first week of September and were overdue for a serious correction. Oil is currently at $77 a barrel and gold trades at $1,622. The dollar has strengthened against the Euro to 1.3199.
Sandy update - My long training is over
I finished the year of long training (bike rides from Huntington Beach to Corona and back each Saturday) and races. Nikki is playing water polo and swimming for Los Alamitos High School so I am looking forward to seeing her games and swim meets. Nikki and I swam together in the Seal Beach Rough Water one mile swim in July- our first ocean race together. She now has more respect for ocean over pool swimmers! I was also the swim course race director of a local half ironman triathlon in Orange County- the inaugural year. The swim took place in Salt Creek beach in Dana Point and I enjoyed swimming there on practice swims without the kelp beds and giant squid!
Debit Card Fees
Last week, Bank of America announced that they will be charging a $5 per month debit card fee. Use your card once, to buy something like a $1 bottle of water and you will be charged the fee. The fee is only on purchases, not on ATM cash withdrawals. Those fees (if any) are not changing. Wells Fargo and Chase will eventually implement similar programs. Pay attention to what your financial institution sends you in the mail. The workaround? Use a credit card instead of a debit card, as long as you pay it off each month. Also, use a credit card that has a benefit like travel mileage, cash back, etc. The other option is to explore other financial institutions like credit unions or other banks that still offer free services.
Asset Planning Charity Golf Tournament
On October 22nd, we are holding our 2nd annual Gail Moreno Golf Tournament to help raise money for the Breast Cancer Angels charity. You should have received your invitation via email or mail, if not and you are interested in playing please call or email us, there are a few spaces left. This year we will be having a helicopter ball drop. If you don’t play golf, but still want to be involved, we are having a bucket of numbered golf balls dropped from a helicopter onto the golf course, immediately prior to the tournament. Each golf ball is assigned to someone who has paid $10. The golf ball that lands on the mark, or closest to mark will win the recipient $300. All of the rest of the money raised will go directly to Breast Cancer Angels. You do not need to be present to win,... but it’ll be fun to watch. You can contact us if you would like to reserve a ball.
We are thankful to our wonderful sponsors who have donated money or gifts. Eagle sponsors ($1,000+) are TD Ameritrade and Ian D. Brodie, MD, Inc; Food Sponsor is Principal funds; Birdie Sponsors ($500+) are Payden & Rygel, Wasatch Funds, Ariel Investments, Stan Hartford-Estate Attorney, Pamela Ivy White-Long Term Care Insurance specialist and Parnassus Funds; Par Sponsors ($100+) American Century Investments, Charles Schwab, Natixis Global Associates, TFS Capital, Blue Skies LLC and Atrium Dentistry.
You can find more information at www.gailmorenomemorial.com.
Stay healthy and enjoy the fall holidays!
Sandy, Carol and Erin
The Dog days of summer are here!
Notes from Sandy:
My holiday weekend was full of biking, ocean swimming and golf so I am out enjoying the summer- I hope all of you are too. I am facing my big race on July 30- a 1.2 mile swim and 56 mile hilly bike ride in Santa Rosa. My long bike rides and long hours of training are coming to an end- then back to golf!
We upgraded to new powerful contact software and I would love to have a picture of you in your file. Please send a jpg file via email or we will take a photo of you the next time we see you in the office.
Debt Ceiling and the S&P
I expect some market volatility over the next month until we resolve our debt ceiling and solidify our rating. Before we can meet the August 2nd deadline, we must endure the Democrats verses Republicans in the blame game and posturing of each party. As we grow closer to the deadline, the market may react in a more volatile manner. Standard and Poor’s, the credit rating agency, stated they will drop the credit rating of the United States from AAA to D if the debt payments are not made in time- due August 4th. July is also corporate earnings season, when a company can exceed their estimates and the stock will decline for no other reason than a higher expectation. The market does not always trade on rational estimates, fundamentals, cash flow projections and PE ratios. It could be a bumpy third quarter.
We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations. Charles R. Swindoll
Notes from Carol:
I just returned from a vacation to Walt Disney World in Florida. The place was bustling – no sign of a down economy. The only thing I did notice was there weren’t as many foreigners, especially Europeans. I used to come to Wald Disney World on business trips when I worked for Disney and there were always many Europeans. I think they are facing the new reality of the recent austerity government cuts that are now in place in most of the euro countries.
Social Security Statements
Since 1999, the Social Security Administration office has automatically mailed you an annual Social Security projected benefit statement. In an effort to save money, these statements will no longer be mailed, at least from April 2011 through September 2011. In October 2011, they will resume mailing annual statements, but only to those who are age 60 or older. This is estimated to save the government $30 million dollars.
You can still access your benefit statement on-line. You can get a personalized estimate of your future benefits at www.ssa.gov/estimator or you can request the information over the phone or in person at a social security office.
New ADV Part II requirements
I had mentioned in the last newsletter that we were revising our annual disclosure brochure (ADV part 2) to meet the new requirements of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act. One of the requirements is that we have to deliver it to you via mail or email. You will find a copy of the ADV part 2 in this mailing. From now on, we will only send you the material changes on an annual basis. You can always request a complete copy at any time and you can always find information about our firm on the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.
Save the Date - Gail Moreno Memorial Golf Tournament
Asset Planning will be hosting the 2nd annual Gail Moreno Golf Tournament to help raise money for the Breast Cancer Angels charity. The tentative date for this event is Saturday, October 22. We will be sending you more information as plans are finalized. Please mark this on your calendar!
Notes from Erin:
Large mortgages will be harder to get
Come September 30th, the government sponsored entities Fannie Mae, FHA, and Freddie Mac will no longer finance conforming mortgages up to $729,750 in L.A. and Orange County. Prior to the credit crisis, the conforming limit was $417,000. However, in 2008, in effort to slow the real estate decline in high cost areas, a stimulus bill allowed the government sponsored entities to finance loans up to $729,750. The temporary measure is set to expire and the new limit will be $625,500 beginning October 1st, 2011.
The market is already beginning to react to this impending deadline as major banks such as Bank of America and Chase have already halted funding mortgages over $625,500. The banks that are still doing new loans and refinancing up to $729,750 will probably follow Bank of America and Chase’s lead very shortly. Private enterprise will likely fill the void of the government backed mortgage market; but almost certainly at higher rates and with stricter underwriting standards. Another thing to consider is the effect the changes will have on the housing market. Homes in the $800,000 plus market could see sharper declines depending on how difficult and or expensive it will be to get loans above $625,500.
Have a wonderful and relaxing summer!
Sandy, Carol, and Erin
Notes from Sandy
LA Times Money Makeover
I just completed another Money Makeover for the LA Times and it was published on Sunday, April 3. This was not a person drowning in debt, but instead was a 4th grade teacher who owns five properties with no mortgages, and has 1.6 million in net worth by the age of 44. I would call David an extreme saver who is consumed with amassing his fortune and retiring by the age of 50 or 55. He will not join friends or family for a meal out in a restaurant. Instead, he will eat off the dollar menu at a fast food restaurant prior to dinner and then join his friends and order an iced tea. He will never go to the movies; he sees no reason to spend the money. He bought his five condos for cash and really wants to buy 10 more if prices continue to decline. While I would like to see more balance in his spending and saving, it was refreshing to find a makeover client with no debt. He certainly is an example of being able to cut all excess out of his life to achieve his goals. I would applaud clients cutting back in some areas until all credit card debt is gone and their saving for retirement is more secure. I do however, want clients to have more balance in their life and I did say there was more to life than money. So, instead of putting your next vacation or large purchase on a credit card, is there an area in your expenses that you can cut back on and save the money first?
“Our life is not determined by what happens to us but by how we react to what happens; not by what life brings us, but by the attitude we bring to life. A positive attitude causes a change reaction of positive thoughts, events and outcomes. It is a catalyst, a spark that creates extraordinary results." Anonymous
My heart aches over the horrible disaster in Japan following the earthquake and tsunami. While only 4% of Japan was affected by the damage, the area did account for 5-6% of their GDP. The radioactive water leaking into the ocean may bring a new round of problems to the area, the sea life and hinder more efforts in the area until the leaks can be stopped. While the stock market did sell off on the news, it has rebounded to higher levels than before the quake. We are closely monitoring the progress of the area and any impact it may have on our stocks or mutual fund holdings.
“Optimism is the one quality more associated with success and happiness than any other.” Brian Tracy
Summer is around the corner
Aside from my normal local triathlons and ocean swim races, I will be returning to Santa Rosa to do the Aquabike race in July. Swimming 1.2 miles and biking 56 miles through the winding vineyards and hills somehow seems normal now. I will be riding around the Palos Verdes Peninsula on the Diabetes Tour Ride for a Cure on May 1. I look forward to hearing about your vacation and summer trips when I see you.
Notes from Carol:
Inflation – the next bubble?
Over the past 85 years the average annualized inflation rate has been 3%. The last few years have seen a lower than average inflation rate; 1.5% for 2010. Even though we are all paying more for gas and groceries, the Fed isn’t overly concerned about inflation – just yet. But there will be increased pressure for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Our goal is to generate enough growth in your portfolios to stay ahead of the increases in the cost of living. This is done by maintaining diversification in your portfolio holdings. Stocks and equity mutual funds have a distinct advantage over other asset classes in producing long-term growth. That said it is also very important to hold bonds in the portfolio. Bonds offer greater return potential than cash and greater stability than stocks, which is important if you have a short-term financial goal. Commodity exposure is also a way to counter inflation. We use mutual funds and/or ETFs to expose your portfolio to commodities.
New ADV Part II requirements
One of the new regulations in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act passed last year required all Registered Investment Advisors to update their brochure disclosure form (ADV part 2). This was a 2 page general disclosure form that you were given and signed when you became clients. The new form is required to be written in “plain English” so that the client (consumer) understands how the advisor operates and is compensated. While the way we operate has not changed, the new disclosure form is now 15 pages. We will be sending you this via email or mail within the next 2 months.
Notes from Erin:
With Japan’s earthquake fresh in our minds, we should be motivated to think about the impact an earthquake could have on our individual financial situations. We often get asked if ‘earthquake insurance is worth it?’ It’s not a clear cut answer. As a general rule of thumb if you can’t afford the premiums, I would advise against stretching your budget if you have very little equity, assets, and or inexpensive belongings. However, if you are in the reverse position, earthquake insurance might make sense. Currently, in California there are two types of insurance providers. The main difference is in the scope of the coverage offered and the size of assets an insurer has saved for possible claims. Coverage obtained through a private insurer backed by the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) offers lower cost lower coverage insurance but their ability to cover substantial claims is great. Companies not backed by the CEA tend to offer policies with less exclusions and higher coverage amounts; however you run the risk that your insurer might not be able to pay your entire claim in the event losses exceed their reserves. It’s important when shopping for insurance to have the agent go through the entire policy with you and understand exactly what you are getting for your money. There is a wealth of information to be found on www.earthquakeauthority.com including free online quotes for earthquake coverage. We recommended, at a minimum, reviewing quotes and policies from one CEA insurer and one independent insurer.
Happy New Year and Welcome to 2011
Notes from Sandy
“I’ve got a feeling” (Black Eyed Peas) this is going to be a good year. 2010 turned out to be a good year for returns in the markets but it certainly had the ups and downs of an amusement ride, from start to finish. I began New Year’s Day with a Polar Bear Plunge in the Huntington Beach Ocean. I kept yelling “my feet hurt!” until they went numb. It was a crazy, exhilarating and a bold way to start the New Year!
In the final two weeks of 2010, President Obama and former President Clinton worked with the Senate and Congress to get the Bush tax cuts extended for two more years. We were all on hold for trading until we knew for sure the income tax rate brackets would not be raised in 2011. I was very busy trading in the portfolios and accounts after we had a better vision of the next two years, in terms of capital gains taxes and income tax. Estate taxes were also clarified and a choice was given to those families that lost a family member in 2010 with regard to step up in basis.
Republicans in the house have vowed to repeal the Obama health care overhaul and bring it to vote before the State of the Union to be held later this month. Another item under attack is the proposed limits on emissions of greenhouse gases from oil refineries and power plants. Even as the federal government plan is under pressure, California has vowed to uphold it. Jerry Brown is our new governor and will try to guide California away from the brink of budget crisis.
I still believe the key to the recovery is in job creation and lowering the unemployment problem facing all states. I think real estate will still have problems and I have seen values soften and fall in the past month. Mortgage interest rates rose in November and December and that will be enough to choke any recovery in the housing market for the short term.
Set new goals for 2011! Set them high and dream big. Chase your dreams, and live your life bold.
Life is too short to wake up with regrets. ♥So love the people who treat you right. ♥ Forget about the ones who don't. Believe everything happens for a reason. If you get a second chance, grab it with both hands. If it changes your life, let it. Nobody said life would be easy, they just promised it would be worth it. Catherine Yen
Notes from Carol:
How the bond and equity markets fared in 2010
It was a solid middle-of-the-road performance for the stock market. Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index closed up 6.24%. The S&P 500 stock index closed up 12.8% for the year and the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 11%. The majority of the gains came in the last quarter of the year. The stock market is still well short of its pre-crisis high: The S&P 500 would need to rise another 24%. The threat of a double dip recession appears to have passed. The wild swings in the market have calmed down. The VIX index, which measures investors’ expectations for future volatility in stock prices, reached its lowest level in 3 years in December.
You will find an additional report in your year-end report package. It is the Portfolio Performance Summary. It shows you the total amount your portfolio gained in dollars and percent for 2010.
IRA and 401K:
The maximum 401K, 403B and 457 contribution stays at $16,500 and anyone born in 1961 or earlier can contribute another $5,500, for a total of $22,000. IRA limits remain at $5,000 plus $1,000 if you are born in 1961 or earlier.
There is no income limit if you want to convert all or part of your IRA to a Roth IRA. Congress left this alone for 2 years. There is still an income limit for contributing to a Roth. The Roth contribution limit phase out for couples is when AGI (adjusted gross income) is $169,000 to $179,000 and for singles it is $107,000 to $122,000.
Realized Losses and Gains for 2010
I will be mailing out the 2010 realized Capital Gains and Loss reports the last week of January. This will have the cost basis and net proceeds for any sales. It will also have the capital gains and dividends paid for the year. You will need this in addition to the 1099s that you will receive from Schwab or TD Ameritrade to give to your tax preparer.
Notes from Erin:
The beginning of the New Year is always a good time to reflect, reorganize and try to scratch a few things off the to-do list. An important and often overlooked task is preparing for unforeseen life events. In 2010 we had a number of families come to us in crisis after a death of a close loved one. Transitions like these are never easy but I offer three items to add to your 2011 checklist to help you and your family be more prepared and avoid a family crisis.
- Create a detailed contact list for everything and anyone your loved ones would need to know in your absence. Organize all your bank accounts, investments, debts, insurance policies, annuities, recurring bills, advisors, etc. in one document and store it in a secure place your beneficiaries can access. You should include account numbers, contact numbers, online log in information along with any other pertinent information.
- Review all your account titles & beneficiaries. Trusts are ineffective unless you titled your property in the name of the trust. Typically, you want all your taxable accounts and real estate in the name of the trust. IRAs can be titled in your name and list beneficiaries. If you would like to change the beneficiaries on your accounts with us, please contact the office.
- Do your loved ones know who your regular doctors are and current medications? I recently listened to another advisor’s story of losing his wife prematurely. The emergency room doctors urgently needed to know his wife’s medications and the husband had rush back home to find out. Keep a card in your wallet of your immediate family members’ current medications and doctors’ phone numbers. Sometimes having your medical history readily available makes all the difference.
Wishing you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year! Sandy, Carol, and Erin
I have so much news to share this quarter. Last quarter was the first time that I did not write comments in my quarterly newsletter. I was in France and stayed in a wonderful house in the countryside. Of course, while I was in France, I had to continue to train with biking, walking and swimming for my big triathlon on July 31, 2010. That was the day I finished my Half Ironman Triathlon. 1.2 miles swimming, 56 miles of hills on the bike and a very hot and hilly 13.1 mile run at the end. We call it 70.3 since I covered 70.3 miles by self propulsion.
The race began in Guerneville (Sonoma) and finished in Windsor. We biked past beautiful wineries and miles of vineyards. It was the hardest thing I have ever done in my life and I finished in just under nine hours. It was so hot and hilly, in the main heat of the day, I was so happy to see the finish line!
The markets recovered from the June end lows and have provided good gains, year to date. My expected rate of return, good and bad years averaged, is 7% per year. We are on track to exceed the average this year, barring a market melt-down. I am still concerned over high unemployment, foreclosures and home values, but lenders across the nation are re-working mortgages rather than proceed with foreclosures. I have heard of rewrites at 2% interest rates and the national averages on mortgage rates may soon fall again. It is still a good time to refinance a mortgage with fixed low fees.
Asset Planning hosted a Memorial Golf Tournament for Breast Cancer Month
On September 25th, we held a golf tournament in the honor and memory of my best friend, Gail Moreno. Gail was a well known breast cancer mentor to newly diagnosed women. BMW honored her with their Drive Across America and she was involved with many other groups as well, and the entire time, she continued to battle cancer herself. She lost her fight after 11 years but she touched the lives of so many people. We had a roster of 52 golfers who had a fun time golfing the 9 hole course at Little Rec in Long Beach. The food was incredible and catered by Olives Gourmet Grocer in Belmont Shore. Several mutual fund sponsors stepped forward with golf balls and gifts including TD Ameritrade, American Century, Ariel, Payden & Rygel. After all expenses were covered, we raised $3,000 for the Breast Cancer Angels charity. Thank you to so many clients that came out to support this tournament. Next year, it will be all scramble teams so think about putting together a team of friends. Date will be approximately the same.
Notes from Carol:
It was amazing to see Sandy reach her Ironman goal this summer. Her dedication is inspiring. I celebrated my own momentous occasion in September- my 25th wedding anniversary. Time goes by so fast!
On Saturday, October 23, I will be participating in the Orange County Financial Planning Day. This is a free event sponsored by the Orange County Financial Planning Association. It will be held at the Huntington Beach Central Library from 10 am – 3pm. There will be various educational workshops on credit counseling, social security, medicare, estate planning and more. There will also be private consultations with a planner and I will be one of the planners providing advice one-on-one. There is more information at www.financialplanningdays.org. It is the first time the FPA is holding this and we expect a big turnout.